Long-term forecast of Australia’s mineral production and revenue The outlook for gold: 2017-2057
Report by MinEx Consulting: October 2017
Under the combined support and sponsorship of six government agencies (both State and Federal), three research organisations and three industry groups, including AIG, a landmark report has been published by MinEx Consulting looking at the forty-year outlook for the Australian gold industry. It forecasts the likely number of mines, production, revenues and employment out to 2057 for this vital sector of Australia’s economy.
In the past, most industry studies rarely look beyond ten years. The report’s author, Richard Schodde, says that “there are two good reasons for this; Firstly; the future is highly uncertain – and any single-line forecast is almost certain to be wrong. Secondly; most of these studies only looked at existing mines and possible new projects. This is fine for short- to medium-term forecasts but it ignores the important contribution of new discoveries for mine production in the longer-term.”
It goes without saying that every mine has a finite life (and will eventually close down); it also equally true that all mines were once a gleam in the eye of a geologist (i.e. it took someone to find them). Leaving out the discovery story results in an incomplete view on the long-term future of the mining industry.
As discussed below, nurturing exploration success is critical for ensuring the long-term sustainability of the mining industry.
MinEx Consulting’s approach to the task was via the following eight-step process:
- Embracing uncertainty and using a Monte Carlo approach to assess 1000 different possible scenarios of the future. This included generating a series of commodity price cycles that reflect what the industry has experienced in the past.
- Estimating future production from existing mines, adjusted for changes in the gold price, variability in operating performance and possible mine-life extensions.
- Assessing whether the future gold price scenario is sufficiently high enough to trigger the development of new mines on known projects.
- Using the price scenarios to predict likely future exploration expenditures. And from this,
- Estimating the likely number, size and quality of discoveries made over time.
- Determining the likelihood that a given discovery will be developed and, if so, incorporating a time-delay between discovery and development.
- Developing a model to estimate the likely production rate and mine life for these discoveries. From this, estimating their likely timing and contribution to future revenues and employment.
- Integrating together the results for existing mines, new projects and exploration success.
The report will be officially released next Monday, 16th October, 2017.
The video “INTRAW – Discover The Project” is now available. The AIG is a third party partner for this EU-funded Horizon 2020 project, and the video will explain the purpose and significance of the project.
Participate in the second ever #OzRockStocktake: the annual social media ‘stocktake’ of Australian geologyPosted October 4, 2017
Join in the fun!
Participate in the second ever #OzRockStocktake: the annual social media ‘stocktake’ of Australian geology
Held during Earth Science Week, 8-14 October 2017
It’s free, and everyone is invited to participate — school kids, university geology students, professional geoscientists, gem collectors, members of the public…and everyone in between!
Significant book prizes to be won!
Last year’s #OzRockStocktake was such a success that we are doing it again!
Please join in the fun during international Earth Science Week (8-14 October 2017) and get involved in the Australian Geoscience Council’s second ever #OzRockStocktake!
#OzRockStocktake is the annual social media ‘stocktake’ of Australian geology.
- Take a photo of your favourite gem, stone, rock, fossil, outcrop, mountain or other geological feature
- Post it on any social media outlet (Twitter / Facebook / Instagram / LinkedIn) from 8-14 October, with the hashtag #OzRockStocktake and a description of what it is or where it was taken
- You are most welcome to post multiple photos — please note that your photos must be originals that have been taken by you or a member of your family
- Search for #OzRockStocktake on social media to see all posts
- The best photos posted during Earth Science Week on Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn or Instagram — using the #OzRockStocktake hashtag — will win a stunning print copy of Shaping a Nation: A Geology of Australia, edited by Richard Blewett and kindly donated by Geoscience Australia ($75 value each). Four copies will be given away — one to each photo from the four social media sites.
This is a great opportunity to be involved in an innovative social media project that is tracking and recording Australia?s vast geological heritage. Post anything from your favourite precious stone to your favourite geological outcrop or mountain landscape!
We look forward to your involvement… and remember, please upload your photos on social media from 8-14 October!
Renew now to ensure your ongoing AIG Membership!
Have you renewed your AIG Membership for 2017/2018? Please check the outstanding membership renewals list below for your name, if you find yourself on the list please follow the link below to renew your AIG Membership.
See a colleagues name? Please remind them to renew by sharing this document.