A few places are still available on the 2017 Volcanic Processes, Deposits, Geology and Resources Short Course being held in Merimbula, southern NSW during early December.
Check the AIG Events Calendar for details.
Long-term forecast of Australia’s mineral production and revenue The outlook for gold: 2017-2057
Report by MinEx Consulting: October 2017
Under the combined support and sponsorship of six government agencies (both State and Federal), three research organisations and three industry groups, including AIG, a landmark report has been published by MinEx Consulting looking at the forty-year outlook for the Australian gold industry. It forecasts the likely number of mines, production, revenues and employment out to 2057 for this vital sector of Australia’s economy.
In the past, most industry studies rarely look beyond ten years. The report’s author, Richard Schodde, says that “there are two good reasons for this; Firstly; the future is highly uncertain – and any single-line forecast is almost certain to be wrong. Secondly; most of these studies only looked at existing mines and possible new projects. This is fine for short- to medium-term forecasts but it ignores the important contribution of new discoveries for mine production in the longer-term.”
It goes without saying that every mine has a finite life (and will eventually close down); it also equally true that all mines were once a gleam in the eye of a geologist (i.e. it took someone to find them). Leaving out the discovery story results in an incomplete view on the long-term future of the mining industry.
As discussed below, nurturing exploration success is critical for ensuring the long-term sustainability of the mining industry.
MinEx Consulting’s approach to the task was via the following eight-step process:
- Embracing uncertainty and using a Monte Carlo approach to assess 1000 different possible scenarios of the future. This included generating a series of commodity price cycles that reflect what the industry has experienced in the past.
- Estimating future production from existing mines, adjusted for changes in the gold price, variability in operating performance and possible mine-life extensions.
- Assessing whether the future gold price scenario is sufficiently high enough to trigger the development of new mines on known projects.
- Using the price scenarios to predict likely future exploration expenditures. And from this,
- Estimating the likely number, size and quality of discoveries made over time.
- Determining the likelihood that a given discovery will be developed and, if so, incorporating a time-delay between discovery and development.
- Developing a model to estimate the likely production rate and mine life for these discoveries. From this, estimating their likely timing and contribution to future revenues and employment.
- Integrating together the results for existing mines, new projects and exploration success.
The report will be officially released next Monday, 16th October, 2017.
Resources for Future Generations 2018 (RFG2018) will showcase advances in earth science, societal and technical innovation, and education that can change the course of history.
Anchored in six themes — Energy, Minerals, Water, the Earth, Education & Knowledge, Communities & Resources — RFG2018 will showcase advances in earth sciences, education, and innovation that can change the course of history.
Present your work to an international cohort of scientists, policy-makers, innovators, educators, industry leaders, and visionaries who are committed to creating a sustainable future.
Be part of the sustainable future. Submit an abstract. Abstracts will be accepted until January 15, 2018.
AIG is a partner organization for this conference.
Keynote plenary sessions at the AGCC will address the major issues that impact Geoscience, such as Earth’s past and future climate; life origins and evolution; future resource security; geohazard risk and mitigation; and the future role of Geoscience in our society.
We will soon be inviting abstracts in the following five themes:
- Understanding the Earth, will include sessions on deep Earth systems and planetary fluxes; planetary dynamics and geohazards; sedimentary basins; marine Geoscience; Earth’s climate – past, present and future; and the solar system and beyond.
- Life on Earth, featuring the origins and development of life; mass extinctions; ancient and historical Australia; the limits of life on earth; bio-geology; life beyond our planet; and, in homage to the host State, an Ediacaran Symposium.
- Resources, covering mineral systems and discovery under cover; petroleum frontiers, including unconventional hydrocarbons; the future of coal; the future energy mix; building our society – construction materials and industrial minerals; water resources; and Geoscience and sustainability of resources.
- Applied Geoscience in the 21st Century, discussing technical innovation; the application of Geoscience to risk identification and mitigation; mining, engineering, agriculture and manufacturing; and the increasing role of mathematical geology, artificial intelligence and robotics in Geoscience.
- Beyond the rocks, focussing on the current and future role that Geoscience plays and will play in our society, including education and advocacy, professionalism and ethics, economics and finance, and Geoscience solutions for the modern world.
Sponsorship and Exhibition Opportunities
A range of sponsorship options are available to suit varying needs and budgets. For a copy of the Sponsorship Prospectus, please contact our Industry and Event specialist Jess Tuffley (firstname.lastname@example.org)
Meet the Committee
Please visit the committee page for a list of AGCC Organising Committee and Sub Committee Chairs
The Asia Pacific Stock Exchange launched a new set of listing rules last week which are specifically aimed at mining and oil and gas companies.
The rules will take effect from Monday December 14.
It effectively creates a new exchange for public companies a new listing venue which have operations in Asia, Australia and the Pacific region. Companies listed on the APX will be able to use a number of international codes for publicly reporting exploration results, mineral resources and ore reserves.
APX chief operating officer David Lawrence was quoted as saying “This represents a significant step forwards in the internationalisation of mining markets in Australia. Until now, all mining companies listed in [the country] had to report solely under the JORC Code.”
“In developing the new framework we adopted best practices from Australia and a number of different other markets throughout the world [and] we believe it is more efficient for listing and investing in MOG companies than frameworks that currently exist in other markets.”
Mining companies will be permitted to issue reports and announcements that conform to the Australian JORC, Canadian NI-43-101 or South African SAMREC codes while oil and gas companies will use the SPE-PRMS code.
However, mining companies with assets predominantly in Australia, New Zealand or Papua New Guinea will be required to report in compliance with the JORC code.
All codes are considered by APX to be comparable to each other and are recognised and adopted globally for market-related reporting and investment.
AIG has confirmed to the APX that Institute Members reporting to APX will be required to adhere to the codes adopted by APX for public exploration and mining reporting purposes.