MEGWA – March 2019

MEGWA – March 2019


MEGWA – March 2019 presents…

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Mining (Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of the Minerals Industry)

John Sykes
Centre for Exploration Targeting, UWA

 

Date

Wednesday 20th March, 2019
5.30pm Drinks, 6.00pm Presentation


 

Venue

Irish Club
21 Townshend Rd, Subiaco


 

Abstract

The minerals industry needs to improve its ability to target ore bodies that are likely to be mineable. However, the long lead time from exploration initiation to discovery then to mining, means that what is defined as ‘mineable’ at present, may not be so in several decades. Mineral explorers therefore need a good understanding of the long-term future of mining to help with exploration targeting, including geological, technical, economic, environmental, geopolitical, and socio-political factors. However, such a wide range of complex, interdependent factors interacting over period of many years, defies traditional extrapolative forecasting techniques.

The Centre for Exploration Targeting “Future of Minerals Exploration” scenarios programme was therefore established to investigate both the future of exploration (how to explore) and the future of mining (for what to explore). Four scenarios sets were developed and analysed over three years, consisting of an ‘individual’ scenario planning exercise and three group workshops. The workshops involved nearly 60 participants with over 1,300 years of combined academic and professional experience across exploration, mining, geoscience, engineering, technology, economics, commerce, management, law, environmental science, energy, sustainability, anthropology, history, and social sciences.

Three potential broad, new search spaces were identified (in addition to the already established ‘under cover’ search space):

  1. new metals associated with the energy transition and other major societal change;
  2. gaining access to areas previously restricted for socio-political reasonsand similarly,
  3. for geopolitical reasons.

Opening these three search spaces, however, requires different capabilities to past exploration efforts. Several recommendations are made to help minerals explorers diversify their professional capabilities to open these more conceptually challenging, technologically, and socio-politically focused search spaces. A key element of this will be tracking both global and local trends in technology and socio-politics, for which scenario planning is also likely to prove of further use.


 

Bio

John Sykes is a geologist, mineral economist and strategist. He is currently writing up his PhD at the Centre for Exploration Targeting (UWA) which is titled “Using scenario planning to improve the integration of geological, technical, economic, environmental, geopolitical, and socio-political factors in minerals exploration management and strategy”. John is also a Strategist for MinEx Consulting, focused on providing economic and strategic advice to the exploration sector. He also teaches on the ‘Strategic Management of Resource Companies’ course on the MBA programme at UWA and is co-author of the weekly ‘Strictly Boardroom’ on MiningNews.net. John is also a Federal Councillor for the AIG.


 

AIG WA branch thanks our MEGWA sponsor